NFL DraftKings Single-Entry Tournament Strategy: Building One Lineup With a Real Shot to Win

NFL DraftKings Single-Entry Tournament Strategy

There is something both exciting and frustrating about playing a single-entry NFL DFS tournament on DraftKings.

You get one lineup.

That's it.

You don't have 20 entries to cover different game environments. You can't build five different quarterback combinations. You can't create a dozen variations and hope one of them finds its way to the top.

You have one opportunity to put together a lineup that can compete against a large field.

That makes single-entry tournaments one of my favorite—and most challenging—formats in Daily Fantasy Sports.

The strategy isn't simply to find the highest-projected players. You need to build a lineup with a combination of floor, ceiling, ownership, correlation and upside.

Most importantly, you need to understand that you're trying to build a lineup capable of finishing near the top, not merely surviving the contest.

Single-Entry Is a Different DFS Game

The first thing to understand is that single-entry tournaments sit somewhere between traditional cash games and multi-entry tournaments.

In a Double-Up or Head-to-Head, consistency is usually your priority.

In a large-field tournament, you're chasing a ceiling that can separate your lineup from thousands of others.

Single-entry requires a little bit of both.

You want players who have legitimate opportunities to produce, but you also need enough upside to give your lineup a chance to win.

That's the balancing act.

You don't want a lineup that's too safe. You don't want one that's reckless either.

You want a lineup where several players have realistic paths to having outstanding games.

Start With Floor—Then Add Ceiling

I generally like to start building a single-entry lineup by identifying players with strong roles.

Look for players who are heavily involved in their offenses:

• Quarterbacks with strong passing or rushing opportunities

• Running backs receiving significant workloads

• Wide receivers commanding consistent targets

• Tight ends involved in the passing game

• Defenses capable of generating pressure and turnovers

These players give your lineup a foundation.

Then comes the important part.

Where can I add ceiling?

A player with a dependable role who also has the potential to produce a huge fantasy score is extremely valuable in single-entry tournaments.

You don't want nine players who are simply projected to score reasonably well.

You want players who can give you a strong score and potentially break the slate.

Ownership Matters

Ownership becomes much more important when you're trying to win a tournament.

If 60 percent of the field has the same player, that player's performance affects a huge percentage of the lineups you're competing against.

If he has a monster game, you're probably going to need him.

But if he disappoints, suddenly a large portion of the field is vulnerable.

This creates an interesting decision.

Sometimes you should simply play the popular player.

Other times, there may be a compelling alternative.

The key is not to automatically fade highly owned players.

Ownership is a piece of information—not a reason by itself to avoid somebody.

If a highly owned running back has an excellent matchup and a massive workload, playing him may be the correct decision.

But if another running back has a similar projection, comparable workload and significantly lower ownership, that's where the decision becomes interesting.

Finding Leverage

Leverage is one of the concepts I pay close attention to in single-entry tournaments.

In simple terms, leverage is about finding situations where your lineup can benefit if something happens differently from what much of the field expects.

For example, imagine a popular quarterback is expected to have a huge game.

Instead of automatically using him, you might look at the opposing team's running back or wide receiver.

Why?

Because you're thinking about how the game could unfold differently than the majority expects.

You don't have to make wild predictions.

Small advantages can matter.

A lower-owned receiver who receives nearly the same opportunity as a highly owned receiver can provide useful leverage without requiring you to make a ridiculous lineup.

Correlation Is Your Friend

One of the strongest concepts in NFL DFS is correlation.

Football plays are connected.

If a quarterback throws for 350 yards and four touchdowns, there is a reasonable chance that one or more of his receivers benefits.

That's why quarterback/receiver stacks can make sense in tournaments.

You can also think beyond the traditional quarterback/wide receiver combination.

Consider how a game might unfold.

If you expect one team to build a lead, perhaps its running back benefits from increased rushing opportunities.

If you expect the opposing team to fall behind, its passing volume could increase.

You're not simply selecting individual players.

You're constructing a story for how the game could play out.

That's one of the biggest differences between advanced DFS lineup construction and simply selecting the highest projected players.

Don't Overstack Your Lineup

Correlation is valuable, but it can also be overdone.

You don't need to put half of your lineup into one game.

If the game disappoints, you could take down your entire lineup with it.

Instead, look for logical combinations.

A quarterback plus one receiver can be enough.

In certain situations, adding an opposing player can also make sense.

The important thing is that your players work together rather than simply being a collection of unrelated projections.

Don't Be Afraid of Popular Players

This deserves repeating.

I've seen DFS players become so obsessed with being contrarian that they end up fading excellent plays simply because they're popular.

That's not a strategy.

If a player has an outstanding matchup, excellent volume and legitimate 30-point upside, there's nothing wrong with using him.

Your goal isn't to have a lineup nobody else has.

Your goal is to have a lineup that can finish near the top.

The trick is finding the right places to be different.

You might have four or five popular players and then use two or three lower-owned players with legitimate upside.

That can be enough differentiation.

Late News Can Change Everything

NFL DFS isn't finished when you initially build your lineup.

Injuries, inactive players, weather and unexpected changes in playing time can dramatically change the slate.

A backup running back who suddenly becomes a starter can become one of the most important pieces of the entire slate.

A receiver dealing with an unexpected injury may become much less attractive.

A quarterback playing in extreme weather could change your expectations for the passing game.

This is why I always recommend checking the latest information before lineup lock.

Don't fall in love with your lineup early in the week.

Your lineup should evolve as the information does.

Don't Leave Your Lineup on Autopilot

One of the advantages of single-entry is that you have the opportunity to spend more time analyzing your one lineup.

Take advantage of it.

Before submitting, look at every player and ask:

Why am I playing him?

If the answer is simply "because his projection is high," that's not necessarily enough.

Try to understand the reasoning behind the projection.

Does he have the workload?

Does he have the matchup?

Does he have touchdown upside?

Is his salary reasonable?

Is his ownership justified?

Does he fit the game environment you're expecting?

And perhaps most importantly:

What happens if this player has a great game?

That's the question that can uncover tournament-winning combinations.

A Simple Single-Entry Construction Process

Here's the process I like to use when building one NFL tournament lineup.

Step 1: Identify the Best Game Environments

Look for games with attractive offensive potential, but don't automatically assume every player in those games is valuable.

Step 2: Find Your Core Players

Choose several players you believe have both strong floors and meaningful upside.

Step 3: Build Your Quarterback Stack

Find a quarterback you like and consider pairing him with one of his primary pass catchers.

Step 4: Look for Leverage

Identify one or two players who could benefit if the slate doesn't unfold exactly as the field expects.

Step 5: Review Ownership

Make sure you're not building an exact copy of the most obvious lineup construction.

Step 6: Add Correlation

Look at whether your players tell a logical story about how the games might unfold.

Step 7: Check Late News

Review injuries, inactive lists, weather and role changes before the contest begins.

Step 8: Trust Your Research

Once you've done the work, don't completely rebuild your lineup because you saw someone else's "must-play" list five minutes before lock.

The Goal Is One Great Lineup

Single-entry tournaments can be incredibly rewarding because they force you to make decisions.

You don't get to hide behind multiple lineups.

You have to decide which quarterback you believe in.

Which running backs?

Which receivers?

Which value plays?

Which popular players do you embrace?

Where do you take your stand?

That's what makes the format so much fun.

You aren't trying to predict every player who will have a great game.

You're trying to construct one lineup where the pieces fit together and several players have realistic paths to exceeding expectations.

Ready to Play NFL DFS?

If you'd like to try DraftKings NFL DFS and build your own single-entry tournament lineup, you can sign up through my referral link:

Join DraftKings and Start Playing DFS

Contest availability, eligibility and applicable rules can vary depending on your location, so always check the current DraftKings rules before entering a contest.

Final Thoughts

Single-entry tournaments aren't about playing it safe.

They're about playing intelligently.

Build a foundation of players with legitimate opportunity. Add ceiling. Pay attention to ownership. Look for leverage. Create logical correlations. Monitor late news. And most importantly, don't confuse being different with being smart.

You only have one lineup.

Make every roster spot count.

The perfect lineup doesn't exist before the games begin. Nobody can predict exactly how an NFL Sunday will unfold.

But you can build a lineup where the pieces make sense, the upside is substantial and the path to a tournament-winning score is realistic.

And sometimes, that's all you need.

One lineup. One opportunity. One big Sunday.

This also gives you a strong third article in your NFL DFS series, following the Double-Up and Head-to-Head pieces. A good next step would be an article on NFL DFS bankroll management, which could tie all three contest types together and create strong internal links between the articles.

Check out my Facebook Page or go to DraftKings